September 11, 2024 – Liason Strategies, a small government consulting, surveying, and lobbyist firm based in Toronto and its principal David Valentin announced it had conducted a poll of 541 voters in Bay of Quinte between September 8 and 9, 2024. Responses were weighted using demographic and geographic information to targets based on the 2021 Census.
The poll found that the PCs and Liberals were effectively tied amongst decided and leaning voters:
| Candidate | Party | Liason Poll | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allsopp | PC Party of Ontario | 35% | 38.69% |
| Sean Kelly | Ontario Liberal Party | 36% | 33.32% |
| Amanda Robertson | Ontario NDP | 18% | 23.08% |
| Lori Borthwick | Green Party of Ontario | 5% | 3.18% |
| Margaret Schuler | New Blue Party | 6% (other) | 0.99% |
| John Turmel | Independent | 0.40% | |
| Mark Snow | Libertarian | 0.35% |
The poll was reasonably accurate, except for underrepresenting support for the NDP party.
The poll was reported in the local media, announcing a “dead heat” and “statistical tie”:
suggests both the Liberals and PCs are in a near dead heat vying to clinch the vacant riding seat in a byelection Sept. 19 triggered by the resignation of former PC MPP Todd Smith
The Intelligencer
shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Ontario PCs by one point in the Bay of Quinte provincial riding, within the margin of error and a statistical tie.
Quinte News
- the PCs are calling too-close-for-comfort with the Liberals
- Dead heat in Bay of Quinte – Queen’s Park Observer
- suggested a very close race between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals – CTV News
And used heavily in the promotion of the Liberal candidate:
The NDPs came second in votes to the PCs in the last two Bay of Quinte provincial elections in 2022 and 2018.
- The responses were collected by robocalls (“Interactive Voice Recording”) on September 8 and 9, 2024 according to the report
- The poll was commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC)
- David Valentin is the principal of Liaison Strategies and one-time “senior Liberal operative“, who has been a lobbyist and consultant for NEPMCC since May 2020, meeting with office holders over 50 times. Over that time, NEPMCC has received over $7M in grants from the federal government’s Canadian Heritage (PCH) program:
- $2.4M on April 1, 2024 from the Local Journalism Initiative 2021-2025
- $2.3M in 2023
- $3M in 2022
- $750k in 2020
Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
Milton by-election
Liason Strategies said there was a “dead heat” in Milton, PCs won by 9 percentage points:
| Candidate | Liason Strategies | Election Result |
|---|---|---|
| Zee Hamid (PC) | 39% ±4.71% | 47% |
| Galen Naidoo Harris (Ontario Liberal) | 39% ±4.71% | 38% |
| Katherine Cirlincione* (Ontario NDP) | 10% ±4.71% | 6.76% |
| Kyle Hutton (Ontario Greens) | 5% ±4.71% | 2.76% |
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex by-election
Liason Strategies’ poll about a month out from the election was generally within the margin of error:
| Candidate | Liason Strategies | Election Result |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Pinsonneault (PC) | 52% ±5.11% | 56.85% |
| Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Ontario Liberal) | 21% ±5.11% | 22.55% |
| Kathryn Shailer (Ontario NDP) | 14% ±5.11% | 10.80% |
| Andraena Tilgner (Ontario Greens) | 8% ±5.11% | 1.56% |
Previous polling firm got it wrong in 2017
Valentin co-founded polling firm Mainstreet Research in 2013 and served as executive vice-president. The firm signed a contract with Postmedia Network in under a year. In the 2017 Calgary municipal election, the firm released polls suggesting Bill Smith was ahead of Naheed Nenshi by 9% to 17%. Nenshi ended up defeating Smith by 8%. Postmedia put their business with the firm on hold.
[Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research] believes his company’s methodology isn’t fundamentally flawed, but said it’s investigating whether it failed to connect with some younger voters and those who don’t speak English as their first language.
CBC News
In 2018, Valentin departed Mainstreet to found Liaison Strategies, a government relations and public relations shop.
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