Liason Strategies’ polling record mixed, got polling client $7M lobbying federal government

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by | Published , updated Sep 20, 2024

September 11, 2024 – Liason Strategies, a small government consulting, surveying, and lobbyist firm based in Toronto and its principal David Valentin announced it had conducted a poll of 541 voters in Bay of Quinte between September 8 and 9, 2024. Responses were weighted using demographic and geographic information to targets based on the 2021 Census.

The poll found that the PCs and Liberals were effectively tied amongst decided and leaning voters:

CandidatePartyLiason PollResults
Tyler AllsoppPC Party of Ontario35%38.69%
Sean KellyOntario Liberal Party36%33.32%
Amanda RobertsonOntario NDP18%23.08%
Lori BorthwickGreen Party of Ontario5%3.18%
Margaret SchulerNew Blue Party6% (other)0.99%
John TurmelIndependent0.40%
Mark SnowLibertarian0.35%
Margin of error of +/- 4.21, 19 times of out of 20.

The poll was reasonably accurate, except for underrepresenting support for the NDP party.

The poll was reported in the local media, announcing a “dead heat” and “statistical tie”:

suggests both the Liberals and PCs are in a near dead heat vying to clinch the vacant riding seat in a byelection Sept. 19 triggered by the resignation of former PC MPP Todd Smith

The Intelligencer

shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Ontario PCs by one point in the Bay of Quinte provincial riding, within the margin of error and a statistical tie.

Quinte News

And used heavily in the promotion of the Liberal candidate:

The NDPs came second in votes to the PCs in the last two Bay of Quinte provincial elections in 2022 and 2018.

Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

Milton by-election

Liason Strategies said there was a “dead heat” in Milton, PCs won by 9 percentage points:

CandidateLiason StrategiesElection Result
Zee Hamid (PC)39% ±4.71%47%
Galen Naidoo Harris (Ontario Liberal)39% ±4.71%38%
Katherine Cirlincione* (Ontario NDP)10% ±4.71%6.76%
Kyle Hutton (Ontario Greens)5% ±4.71%2.76%
Source

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex by-election

Liason Strategies’ poll about a month out from the election was generally within the margin of error:

CandidateLiason StrategiesElection Result
Steve Pinsonneault (PC)52% ±5.11%56.85%
Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Ontario Liberal)21% ±5.11%22.55%
Kathryn Shailer (Ontario NDP)14% ±5.11%10.80%
Andraena Tilgner (Ontario Greens)8% ±5.11%1.56%
Source

Previous polling firm got it wrong in 2017

Valentin co-founded polling firm Mainstreet Research in 2013 and served as executive vice-president. The firm signed a contract with Postmedia Network in under a year. In the 2017 Calgary municipal election, the firm released polls suggesting Bill Smith was ahead of Naheed Nenshi by 9% to 17%. Nenshi ended up defeating Smith by 8%. Postmedia put their business with the firm on hold.

[Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research] believes his company’s methodology isn’t fundamentally flawed, but said it’s investigating whether it failed to connect with some younger voters and those who don’t speak English as their first language.

CBC News

In 2018, Valentin departed Mainstreet to found Liaison Strategies, a government relations and public relations shop.

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